THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN AND YOU
By Josh Lewis
Anyone who watches the nightly news or reads the newspaper is well aware hat
the "subprime mess" now has become the "mortgage market meltdown." What most
people don't know is what this means, why it happened and how it will impact
them. This is a complex issue that will take time to sort out. In this short
space, I will try to answer these questions and help you create an action plan
to protect you and your family.
What is a "mortgage market meltdown?" What has occurred in the last 10
days is best described as a complete shutdown of the mortgage markets for all
loans not guaranteed by the FHA, VA, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Included in this
shutdown are all subprime loans, all jumbo loans (loans greater than $417,000)
and most "exotic" loans such as Option ARMs and limited documentation loans.
Why did this happen? As recently as the 1980s, getting a mortgage
meant going to a bank or savings and loan, which funded your mortgage from their
bank deposits. After the savings and loan crisis, the mortgage markets underwent
a significant shift due to changes in the regulatory environment. In the new
system when you applied for a loan, it often was through a mortgage bank. A
mortgage bank is an institution established to originate and sell mortgages.
Mortgage banks operate with lines of credit that allow them to borrow money to
fund your loan, and then pay off the funds they borrowed by selling your loan
into the mortgage market and pocketing the difference as profit.
As you can imagine, Wall Street isn't very interested in buying mortgages
that only amount to a few hundred thousand dollars. What they want is to
purchase pools of hundreds of similar mortgages that total millions of dollars.
Over time, this business became so lucrative that nearly two out of every three
mortgages was pooled this way and sold to investors as mortgage-backed
securities without the benefit of FHA, VA, Fannie or Freddie guarantees.
Over the last five years, with the global financial markets awash in money
seeking any investment with a decent return, the loans that were funded and sold
in these pools got riskier and riskier. This situation meant lower credit
scores, higher loan-to-value ratios, interest-only and even negatively
amortizing loans. At the same time, the premiums required by investors to accept
this risk, in the form of higher rates and fees, got skinnier and skinnier until
anyone with a pulse could qualify for a big loan with great terms and tiny
payments.
That laxness all stopped last week. For the last several months, as subprime
delinquencies and foreclosures grew at a far faster rate than Wall Street
anticipated, the market for those loans dried up and underwriting guidelines got
much tighter. The major headlines here were the near overnight bankruptcy of New
Century Financial, one of the largest subprime lenders in the country, and the
failure of two subprime mortgage hedge funds run by Bear Stearns. For most
Americans, this fallout was a concern, but not too much of a concern. After all,
most of us have good credit and never rely on subprime loans.
Which brings us again to last week. Within a matter of four days, American
Home Mortgage, the 10th-largest wholesale lender in the United States, announced
margin calls, had trading of its stock halted and finally filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy-court protection to wind down its business. The big news here was
that American Home Mortgage didn't deal in subprime loans. The company primarily
was an Alt-A lender. Alt-A loans fill in the grey area between prime and
subprime loans, usually due to some combination of high loan-to-value and
limited documentation. When the media references "exotic loans," they are
generally referring to Alt-A loans.
The AHM implosion was the spark that lit the fuse of this meltdown. Within
days, investors on Wall Street who were paying 101% to 102% of the value of
mortgage-backed securities stopped bidding entirely. They wouldn't buy them for
90%, 80%, or even 50% of their value. Most mid-sized mortgage banks have been
forced to stop funding loans until buyers resurface for these loans. Larger
lenders with the capital to hold loans in their portfolio for a period of time,
most conspicuously Wells Fargo home loans, responded by raising rates on these
loans by 1-1.5% overnight.
To put this situation into dollar terms for you, consider that a client of
mine qualified for a $1.3 million dollar purchase loan. These are good buyers
with a 25% down payment, good credit and full documentation. I initially quoted
these borrowers 6.375% on an interest-only loan to give them a payment of
slightly more than $6,900 per month. Within two days, the best rate on this type
of loan jumped to 7.25% and the payment spiked to $7,850, an increase of $950
dollars. Even loans of half this amount would have seen a similar rate increase
and a payment leap of $400 to $500 per month.
What Does This Mean to YOU? The answer to this question depends on
your circumstances. For all homeowners, the rapid increase in the payments
required to finance a home will likely speed the fall of home prices throughout
the country, especially high priced and so-called "bubble markets."
If you have a fixed rate mortgage and plan to live in your home for an
extended period of time, you probably have no need to worry. The mortgage market
will correct to more normal levels and the impact on you should be minimal.
If you have an adjustable rate mortgage, especially an Option ARM loan with a
negative amortization feature, or a hybrid loan with a fixed period ending in
the next 18-24 months, you should consult with your mortgage professional to see
what options currently exist for you, and to formulate a game plan for avoiding
a rate and payment spike, or worse, in the near future.
If you have a subprime loan, run, don't walk, to see your mortgage
professional. You need to understand your situation and all of your options. The
situation is just too complex to try to figure out on your own.
For anyone who does not have a relationship with a trusted mortgage advisor,
or would simply like a second opinion, please call me at 888.944.JOSH (5674) or
e-mail me here. I can
analyze your current financing, your needs moving forward and create a game plan
to give you the peace of mind you require in these uncertain times in the
market.
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